The Novice Bear: TLT Short

Sunday, January 27, 2008

TLT Short

I have been watching the meteoric rise of bond prices and have been looking for a spot to get in on the short side. The 20 year bond ETF, TLT, has finished a TD Sequential sell signal and recent price action has indicated that we are at some serious resistance. That resistance is much clearer in the long term chart below.

I would honor a stop loss if the price closes above 97.05.

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kswing code


Dim i,j,k,last As Integer
Dim swing As Single = Me.CodeBlock.ParameterValue
Dim curhigh,curlow,swhigh,swlow,lowp,highp As Single
Dim pcswing As Single
Dim highbar, lowbar, chighbar, clowbar As Integer
		
pcswing = swing/100
    For i = 1 To InputCount-1
	If i = 1 
	curhigh = inputlast(0)
	curlow = inputlast(0)
	End If
			
	If last <> 1
				
	If inputlow(i) < (curhigh-curhigh*pcswing)
	last = 1
	swhigh=curhigh
	highbar = chighbar
	curlow = inputlow(i)
	clowbar = i
	lowp = inputlow(i)
	addtooutput(inputdate(chighbar),swhigh)
					
	ElseIf inputhigh(i) > curhigh
	curhigh = inputhigh(i)
	chighbar = i
					
	End If
        End If
			
    If last <> -1
	If inputhigh(i) > curlow+(curlow*pcswing)
	last = -1
        swlow = curlow
	curhigh = inputhigh(i)
	chighbar = i
	addtooutput(inputdate(clowbar),swlow)
					
	ElseIf inputlow(i) < curlow
	curlow = inputlow(i)
	clowbar = i
	End If
	End If
	Next

TDST Sell Line

Dim j,k As Integer
Dim x As Integer = 0
Dim m As Integer = 0
Dim n As Integer = 0
Dim p As Integer = 0
Dim ar1(50000), ar2(50000) As Integer
Dim Period As Integer = Me.CodeBlock.ParameterValue

For i As Integer = 4 To InputCount-1
Dim CurDate As Date = InputDate(i)
If inputlast(i) > Inputlast(i-4) And InputLast(i-1) > InputLast(i-5) _
And InputLast(i-2) > InputLast(i-6) And InputLast(i-3) > InputLast(i-7) _
And InputLast(i-4) > InputLast(i-8) And InputLast(i-5) > InputLast(i-9) _
And InputLast(i-6) > InputLast(i-10) And InputLast(i-7) > InputLast(i-11) _
And InputLast(i-8) > InputLast(i-12) And InputLast(i-9) < InputLast(i-13)
m = m+1
ar1(i) = m
End If
Next

For j = 4 To InputCount-1
If ar1(j) > 0 And ar1(j) > ar1(j-1)
n = n + 1
ar2(n) = j
End If
Next

addtooutput(inputdate(ar2(n-(Period-1))-8),inputlow(ar2(n-(Period-1))-8))

Sunday, January 27, 2008

TLT Short

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kswing code

TDST Sell Line