Sunday, September 30, 2007

Market Guru: Ken Fisher

Sometimes its too easy to be bearish. There are so many reasons to believe that the market will unravel and it seems that being a bear is the smart thing to do. The plain simple fact, however, is that it pays to be a bull. I learned this from Ken Fisher.

He is not a perma-bull by any means, but he realized long ago that the market can rise in the face of much worse things than what we face today. Get this, the market rose 20.3% in 1942, 25.9% in 1943, 19.8% in 1944, and 36.4% in 1945! Just imagine all of the bears that were burned during those years. Fisher writes, "Historically, if markets have been positive 71% of the time, and some of those negative years were only down-a-little, you're looking at very few years of truly scary, bearish, down-a-lot type."

Take a look at the S&P 500 chart and the calls Fisher has made during the last decade. It is pretty amazing.

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