Saturday, September 29, 2007

Elliot Wave is no theory

I really dislike Elliot Wave "theory". First of all, as a scientist I hate the misuse of the word theory. (Dow theory is guilty of this also.) A theory is a self-consistent model for describing the behavior of a related set of natural phenomena. In this sense, a theory is a systematic and formalized expression of all previous observations which is predictive, logical and testable. You want to see how predictive Elliot Wave "Theory" is? Take a look at the predictions by the method's most famous practitioner. (Click on the picture for a larger view) This was taken from and, as you can see, Prechter's predictions are horribly wrong. I can only hope that with such a awful track record that there aren't very many people who still pay attention to his newsletter.

How long can someone stay bearish? What would it take for him to turn bullish? Would such a moment mark the ultimate top of the market?

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