Sunday, October 07, 2007

Longer Term TD Sequential Price Projections

Ever since I coded up the TD Sequential and TD Combo buy points I have struggled with setting price projections. DeMark likes to use the TD Trend Factor, but I have found that with my limited bankroll using such small price projections are not practical. I also don't have the time to monitor market closely enough. What I would really like is to buy at the bottom of a price reversal and have an indicator that would tell me if the move to the upside will continue or if the price will resume the larger downtrend.

Let me present a recent long position as an example. The short term chart show the TD Sequential countdown and the buy point (red bar). As the price moved up, one can see that it ran into resistance at the TDST line at 83.08 . Does one sell here or does one wait until the price builds strength to bust through overhead resistance?

What the next chart shows is that it might be possible to see a trend break in the TD Combo Advance/Decline line, indicating that a move higher is possible. As you can see, the A/D line has already broken the shorter term downtrends, indicating that one should hold the long position. If it breaks the final line, look for a larger up-move.

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